Walden, 2010?

Rep. Greg Walden hasn’t said he’s planning on running for Governor in 2010 (yet), but the enthusiasm surrounding the possibility of his candidacy was evident last month at the Republican’s annual Dorchester conference, and is still simmering among politicos on both sides of the aisle.

Two years out, Walden is generally considered the strongest GOP candidate for Governor, although he is currently zeroed in on his race to retain his seat in the Second Congressional District against either Sabrina Shrake or Noah Lemas, both of whom filed in March for the Democratic nomination.

“Knowing Greg, I’m certain he’s focused on his re-election; I would comfortably say he has not closed the door to it nor decided if he will run [for Governor],” said Mark Cushing, chair of Tonkon Torp’s Government Relations and Public Policy Practice Group, and a personal acquaintance of Walden’s.

The Oregon Republican Party is similarly concentrated on the November election and has not spoken with Walden yet regarding the potential candidacy. Brianne Hyder, the party’s spokeswoman, did note that “Congressman Greg Walden has been an exemplary representative for Oregonians in Congress, and he would be an excellent candidate for Governor in 2010.”

Many sources cited Walden’s intelligence, likability, and stance as a moderate conservative as reasons he could run a successful gubernatorial race, in both the primary and general elections. With Gov. Kulongoski unable to seek another term, there will be no incumbent, and Walden would likely find support among a large group of moderate voters in Oregon.

“He would take up a lot of space, a broad swatch of the middle of the Republican constituency and probably the middle of the Oregon electorate. He is an awfully compelling candidate,” said Len Bergstein, a longtime political consultant and analyst.

Walden has experience at both the state and federal levels; he began his political career in Oregon State Legislature, serving in both the House and Senate, and was consequently elected to the U.S. Congress in 1998.

“He has a broad history, he is from a rural part of the state, but is clearly at ease with urban topics. He has a conservative bent, but no one thinks of him as an ultra conservative. He is cast in the kind of political mold Oregonians like to hold up a mirror to and say ‘he looks like us, he feels like us,’” Bergstein noted.

The field is of course wide open, although Jack Roberts, former Republican Labor Commissioner and Lane County Commissioner, speculated that the other candidate likely to run for the Republican nomination for Governor is Jason Atkinson.

Atkinson, a State Senator, finished third in the Republican gubernatorial primary in 2006.

“Jason is a good candidate with a winning personality who sometimes coming across as a conservative ideologue and sometimes as a reasonable pragmatist, a blend that could help him win both a Republican primary and general election under the right circumstances,” Roberts said.

Roberts, however, also believes that if Walden decides to run, it is likely that Atkinson will pass.

“If Walden made it clear he was running, it would clear a lot of the underbrush,” Bergstein concurred, although in the absence of a Walden candidacy, Bergstein believes that a number of people from both parties will flood into the race.

“All the people running statewide right now would have something going for them,” he concluded.U

ltimately, in politics, anything can happen on any day (see: Gov. Spitzer) and the November election, as well as the success of the upcoming Congressional term, will shape the prospects for 2010, not only for Walden, but also for the other politicians mulling over their prospective gubernatorial paths.