December 31, 2007 - 6:38am
Top 10 New Years Resolutions for Oregon Politicos
By Wally Edge
Tags: Ted Kulongoski, Greg Macpherson, Gordon Smith, Kate Brown, Peter DeFazio, Sho Dozono, John Frohnmayer, Bernie Giusto, Martha Schrader, Vance Day
10. John Frohnmayer – Find a credible pollster.
9. Greg Macpherson – Take the Sierra Club off my Christmas card list for next year.
8. Kate Brown – Share my exciting poll results with Wally Edge.
7. Vance Day – Find some statewide candidates to put on the ballot or find my own replacement.
6. Peter Defazio – Ruin all the SOS candidates future hopes by announcing my 2010 gubernatorial bid.
5. Sho Dozono – Come out of the campaign closet and officially announce my Portland mayoral candidacy.
4. Ted Kulongoski – Check for television cameras before pouting off stage.
3. Martha Schrader – Wait until the incumbent is out of the hospital before gunning for her congressional seat.
2. Gordon Smith – Hold my tongue at retirement parties.
1. Bernie Guisto – Learn when to fold ‘em.
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Poll
Given the constant changing dynamic of Oregon's US Senate race, who do you think Oregonians will choose on November 4?
Gordon Smith (R)
33%
Jeff Merkley (D)
67%
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October 16, 2008
"The measure acknowledges we had a huge increase in our immigrant student population and we need to be smarter about how we teach them."
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Frohnmayer's Polling
Hey Wally,
It's in the interests of Oregon's Democratic establishment to discredit Riley, since he's willing to work for groups they don't like, but that doesn't make him a bad pollster.
Riley is credible enough to draw the attention of the national press to this race. Also, the Riley poll was not a campaign poll. Riley asked the same question in December that he asked in October, and the 7 points Riley says he has moved is realistic, given Frohnmayer's success at public events and with some of the Oregon's largest editorial boards.
Frohnmayer has been out speaking with groups around the state and building the groundwork of his run for 3 years or more.
Frohnmayer doesn't have the infrastructure available to the Dems, but he is a stronger candidate than either Merkley or Novick, and this polling clearly reflects the strength of his candidacy, and the relative weakness of the Democrats in the field.
Generic D's run well in this race, but unless their name is DeFazio or Kitzhaber, their numbers drop precipitously. By contrast, not only are the Frohnmayer's reasonably well-known in Oregon, the family is incredibly well-connected.
John will be in all of the major televised debates, and you should not underestimate the power of of Independents in Oregon. Perot got 25 percent when he ran here. It's also worth mentioning that the Independent Party was the only political party in Oregon to grow during 2007 -- going from 0 to 10,000 in less than a year.
Frohnmayer may not win this race, but he is as credible as any candidate not named Smith, and your snark is simply not well-grounded.
Poll
I actually saw similar numbers in a Democrat poll about 5 or 6 weeks ago. This is not good for Merkley. As long as Frohnmayer is in the race, Merkley can't win. Don't shoot the messenger.
SC
Frohnmayer ...
... could win this race if the media would quit spinning his campaign as "running to the left of the Democrats".
Even Cook's analysts are saying that he cannot be discounted.
As an Independent, John is a better Republican than Gordon Smith and a better Democrat than any of the candidates in this race because he is not bought and paid for by special interests.
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