Kevin Mannix

WEST LINN—Mike Erickson (R-Lake Oswego) had been quiet this summer. Almost too quiet, to the point that the 5th Congressional District’s Republican candidate had many in both Democratic and Republican circles wondering what happened to him.

After a bitter primary in the spring with sensational abortion allegations in May, there was perhaps some wishful thinking among Republican Party insiders who were hoping to pick a replacement candidate for Mike Erickson (R-Lake Oswego) as the nominee in CD-5.

Looks like convicted tax activist Bill Sizemore and Oregon's favorite GOP perennial candidate Kevin Mannix are back to re-write Oregon law they way they see best.

If Mike Erickson thought the allegations of abortion that his opponent brought up in the primary were behind him, The Oregonian's Monday cover story will be a shock.

It is an in-depth interview with Tawnya, the woman who claims she had a relationship with Erickson (R-Lake Oswego) in 2001. Tawnya gives her version of the events that she says led to her pregnancy and later an abortion paid for by Erickson. Oregonian reporters Janie Har and Steve Mayes corroborated her story with a paper trail and two of Tawnya's friends during that time. The reporters flatly determined, "Their story conflicts directly with Erickson's version."

Since the last elected Republican governor of Oregon, Vic Atiyeh, took office in January of 1979, it doesn’t look good for the party’s 2010 prospects.

Some Republicans are saying that a loss by Mike Erickson to Kurt Schrader in the 5th district House race could help conservative Kevin Mannix stage a comeback in 2010 – either through another race for Governor (he came within three percentage points of beating Ted Kulongoski in 2002 and lost a primary in 2006), or for the GOP nod to run against freshman Schrader.

Oregon Republican sources say that despite pleas from GOP leaders – including some old friends and close political allies – Kevin Mannix steadfastly refuses to endorse Mike Erickson for Congress in the fifth district.  The especially nasty primary is making it tough for Republicans to unite behind Erickson as he faces Kurt Schrader in what could be a competitive race for Darlene Hooley’s open House seat.

Following Darlene Hooley’s announcement that she would not seek re-election, Republicans immediately viewed Oregon’s fifth district as one of the GOP’s best chances nationally to pick up a Democratic seat.   But the raucous primary between Mike Erickson and Kevin Mannix has led many political insiders to view Democrat Kurt Schrader as the favorite to replace Hooley.  Erickson, who spent over $1 million to win the nomination, is expected to have trouble uniting the GOP after accusations that he impregnated a former girlfriend and paid for her abortion.  So far, Mannix has refused to endorse Erickson.  

Now that the primary dust is beginning to settle, many pundits are speculating which candidates will be victorious in November.  Here is the "conventional wisdom" being spread at the start of this general election season.

Although last night Kevin Mannix would not let hope die, pledging to wait until every vote in the 5th Congressional District's Republican primary was counted, he conceded this morning to Mike Erickson. But, according to his campaign, Mannix will not endorse Erickson for the general election.

Erickson received 48.35 percent of the district's votes, according to the Secretary of State's unofficial results, while Mannix, got 46.05 percent.