After a tough spring, Erickson’s campaign sees a brighter summer

After a bitter primary in the spring with sensational abortion allegations in May, there was perhaps some wishful thinking among Republican Party insiders who were hoping to pick a replacement candidate for Mike Erickson (R-Lake Oswego) as the nominee in CD-5.

That appears to be in the past.

“I was buying into the notion that he would be forced out by August,” lobbyist Len Bergstein said. “But he doesn’t seem in that bad a shape with the rank and file Republicans anymore.”

With August just around the corner, Erickson appears to have weathered the worst of his campaign’s storms, and he has hit the ground again, shaking hands, meeting voters and getting his message out there.

“Right after the primary there was a couple people that were talking about being forced out, but that really just didn’t happen,” said Jeff Harvey, Erickson’s campaign spokesman. “Now it’s a unified party, and Mike has the support of almost every major Republican in the district, from the mayors to the county officials.”

His Democratic rival, state Sen. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby), has also racked up some impressive endorsements, including support from the Oregon Farm Bureau and Oregon State Building Trades Council, and from Republican Party officials that include Marion County Commissioner Janet Carlson and Tillamook County Commissioner Mark Labhart.

Still, Erickson appears to be in it for the long haul. So what does he have to do to stay in the race?

“That, is an excellent question,” former Labor Commissioner Jack Roberts said, laughing. “He needs to change the subject, and what he needs to do is convince Republicans he is a viable candidate.”

Already, Harvey says, Erickson has taken that on by hitting the ground and connecting to voters in the 5th district by focusing Erickson’s message on the economy, gas prices and health care.

“We’ve done a lot of work on the grassroots side,” Harvey said.

Winning the confidence of the party faithful won’t be easy following the release of his second quarter fundraising numbers.  Erickson reported approximately $1.04 million raised in the past quarter, thanks to a hefty loan of $974,000 to his own campaign. That means in two months he managed to bring in $65,433, including the measly $5,000 he received from the National Republican Congressional Committee.

That doesn’t imply a lot of faith from the national body, “assuming they ever had faith in him to begin with,” as Roberts put it.

Even though he’s been able to keep himself in the race financially, despite losing funding and support from groups like Oregon Right to Life, Roberts believes that the constant self-contributions may have hurt him almost as much as they helped him.

“One of the problems that Mike has is once people realize you are willing to fund your own campaign, people are less likely to give,” Roberts said.

The good news for Erickson, according to Bergstein, is that should he be forced to fund himself beyond the $1,565,920.40 he has already invested in his campaign, Oregon’s CD-5 seems to be a bargain, as far as congressional campaigns go.

“It’s not a really expensive district, because you don’t have to run against an incumbent,” Bergstein said.

The next hurdle would be rebuilding his base. Erickson ran most of his primary campaign on a family values platform. After allegations from an ex-girlfriend surfaced claiming that Erickson paid for her abortion, the family values crowd left Erickson in droves.

But there are still votes out there to be had. Fifth Congressional District voters seem to be much more worried about rising gas prices and a dwindling economy than they are about events in Erickson’s personal life that occurred seven years ago.

“He can connect to fiscal conservatives,” Roberts said. “But he’s going to have to do that in a very open and very honest way.”

Bergstein believes that Kevin Mannix, Erickson's main primary foe, the man who publicized the abortion allegations, and the man who still won't endorse him in his general election campaign, may have left a parting gift for Erickson.

“Ironically, maybe Mannix has put some measures on the ballot that will bring out votes,” Bergstein said, referring to initiatives such as Measure 40, a state statute that would create mandatory minimum prison sentences for crimes. “A couple of ballot measures may bring out Erickson’s people.”

If that is the case, Roberts says it is up to Erickson to give those voters a reason to support him.

“He needs to go to the voters,” Roberts said. “He has to do it by his message, and he needs to get started as if it’s after Labor Day. He’s just not going to get anything by going to the donors.”

But, as Harvey says, Erickson is enthusiastically up to that challenge.

“He’s resilient that way,” Harvey said. “I’ve worked with a lot of campaigns, and I’ve never seen a guy who just loves walking around, talking to voters and shaking hands.”

Bergstein also threw out the possibility that help from outside the Republican Party could revive Erickson’s campaign.

Independent groups, such as Freedom’s Watch which funded robocalls against Schrader a couple weeks ago, could come into the district and try to move support toward Erickson. Bergstein believes something like that is definitely possible, and would be a helping hand that he believes Erickson desperately needs.

“He’s running on fumes,” Bergstein said. “And if you’re a Republican at the national level, you’ve got to be shaking your head because this is one congressional seat on the West Coast you could have picked up.”