April 7, 2008 - 2:56pm
Sources: KATU set to release eyebrow-raising poll showing Merkley in 3rd place
By Alex IsenstadtA new poll out tonight in the U.S. Senate race will raise at least a few eyebrows.
The KATU poll, to be released tonight, shows Jeff Merkley, the House Speaker, in third place behind activist Steve Novick for the Democratic nomination, sources say.
Roger Obrist was found in fourth place in the poll. All are competing in the May 20th primary.
(UPDATE: KATU's story has Novick at 23%, anti-war activist Candy Neville at 12% and Merkley at 11%)
Matt Canter, Merkley's spokesman, would not delve into the specifics of the poll but raised what he said were significant questions about the scientific methodology in which the survey was conducted.
"What we do know is that people are just now starting to pay attention to this race," Canter added.
Canter and Jake Weigler, Novick’s campaign manager, both said that Roger Obrist, a retired construction worker, finishes in fourth place in the poll with 5%. Weigler also said that the poll his candidate, Novick, in first place and found Merkley in third place.
Weigler, for his part, pointed out that the KATU poll was the fourth consecutive poll that either showed Novick ahead or, when compared to Merkley, as the stronger challenger against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith.
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Syndicate
ouch
sounds like Merkley's self-touted "biggest grassroots campaign in OR" is turning up only crabgrass. Behind someone who doesn't even have the money to run a poll? I wonder what Mwrkly's firewall strategy is for holding off Pavel Goberman...
WOW
I was going to say "It's early yet" but then I looked at my calendar and remembered that it is April. April 7th in fact. WOW.
It's clear that Merkley is having trouble getting traction (and as a Novick supporter I'm glad about that of course) but I would not have guessed things were this bad for him.
Merkley's name recgnition will come up as he advertises -- but it remains to be seen whether he'll experience the "Rudy Giuliani effect" and become less popular as voters learn more about him.
Maybe I'm just biased, and cranky about the nasty campaign he's running, but I have to say that I certainly like Merkley less than I did a few months ago when I knew less about him.
You too
Has anyone broken the news to Bono?
Pavel?
I'm guessing the Merkley camp is praying that the 2nd place slot isn't going to Pavel Goberman...
What about the other 40%
Steve Novick's supporters (at least the ones I read above) seem rather mean-spirited. I hope it's just a reflection of their joy at his rating in this poll, rather than petty gloating. There are still 40% of the 597 voters polled who are undecided....
Not our intention...
Sigh... I guess I can only speak for myself, but I meant my comment to be humorous.
I know TJ and Portlandia personally and know that they're not mean-spirited or particularly given to "gloating." (Pat's comment also seems to me to be light humor.)
We might be poking fun at Merkley, but I don't see it as being "mean."
Unknown factor
Some previous polls have put the "unknown" or "undecided" factor at around 70%. So a drop to 40% in this poll is actually a good thing, I think (for the race in general, and not necessarily for any particular candidate).
And, you certainly won't find me saying that a poll of under 600 individuals is, by any means, conclusive. It is, however, kind of amusing/interesting.
to colin
Thank you for affirming what I suspected: that Mr. Novick's supporters are very happy with the poll result today. Given that you are probably working hard for your candidate I appreciate that sentiment.
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